Has Global Warming happened before?

Global Warming has happened before. Higher temperatures on earth are not unknown. The most extreme was the earth's climate in the Upper Cretaceous Period (86 million years ago), which was far warmer than today. The Mean Surface Temperature across the Earth during this time has been estimated as being 11°c warmer than now.

So, the next question would be...
How did that happen? What was the main cause?
Obviously, it could not be caused by the cavemen that burning too much wood during their time... nor too much waste generated by the dinorsaurs...

See. The reason for asking these questions is that all public media is now *educating people that the Main cause for global warming is because that Human being release too much CO2. --> And, the solution is to impose a Carbon Tax.

Below is a clips on the video titled "Global Warming or Global Governance" DVD.
In the DVD, dozens of leading climate scientists, experts and politicians show that this is not true. It states that the main cause of Global warming is a natural phenomenon, which is the activities on the Sun. While the *propaganda or *advertising to sell the idea that it is man-caused is aimed to get the public to support the Carbon Tax (global tax).

So, could this idea of "Global Warming caused by man that need Global Carbon Tax" works similar like "Iraq had Mass Destruction Weapons that needed US Army to Save the World"???

That why Ralph Waldo Emerson said:"What is the hardest task in the world? To Think."

Thanks to someone, who had uploaded the complete video in YouTube...
If you are interested, just google it and it can make you to think harder with more non-publicized information.

(.......................................Click on the right edge of the slide to flip the slide.)

by the way...
* The term "Propaganda", "Advertising" or "Educating" are actually used interchangeably nowadays. It is up to the individual to spot them and be alert with that.

** Do you aware that there are now more than 30,000 scientists sue Al Gore for Global Fraud, and produce lot of counter-evidences that Al Gore put in his global warming show "An Inconvenient Truth". Here is a good SOURCE that compile such information. <-Click here if you want to know more. :-)

“The first man who, having fenced in a piece of land,
said, ‘This is mine,’ and found people naïve
enough to believe him, that man was
the true founder of civil society.”
— Jean-Jacques Rousseau
Bless You
KH Tang

Stock Market Tools (6) - Livermore Market Key

"MANY years of my life had been devoted to speculation
before it dawned upon me that nothing new was happening in the
stock market, that price movements were simply being repeated, that while
there was variation in different stocks the general price pattern was the same...."
- Jesse Livermore

Livermore Market Key Table. (Click to enlarge)

In his book, "How To Trade In Stock"(<-downloadable), the stock speculation king, Jesse Livermore had spent a great deal of effort to illustrate how he used his own method in determining the trend of stocks... And he named it as the "Livermore Market Key".

Although the method was published in 1940, and many traders who had read some classical trading book must have come across this Tool, this method is not popular at all. I guess, most likely, that it involves with lot of manual work in updating the table as shown above. With current technology, this can be programmed into charting format to make it more user friendly as the following chats...

In the Market Key System, Livermore applies two level of filter to double check whether the stock is in Up-Trend or Down-Trend. So at anytime, a stock is classified into one of the six states:-
1: Up Trend, - (Long - Plotted as Green in the following Diagrams)
2: Natural Rally, - (Close position and stay with Cash)
3: Secondary Rally, - (Close position and stay with Cash)

4: Down Trend, - (Short - Plotted as Red in the following Diagrams)
5: Natural Reaction, - (Close position and stay with Cash)
6: Secondary Reaction. - (Close position and stay with Cash)

In his example, Jesse Livermore use 5 points as the filter threshold for stock that go from 30 plus to 100. To make it able to use of all price range of stock, using "percentage change" would be a good choice for programming the algorithm. And, in fact, this is the ONLY parameter that needs to be taken care of...

Parameters Setting:

All the following charts are using the same setting of 10% as filtering threshold. Of course, one can go through computerized optimization to find out what value work best, over here it is just for illustration purpose.

The next three charts below are S&P500 Monthly, Weekly and Daily Chart. And are all have the Livermore Market Key with 10% threshold setting:-

SPY (S&P500) Monthly Chart: Click to enlarge

SPY (S&P500) Weekly Chart: Click the Chart to enlarge

SPY (S&P500) Daily Chart: Click the Chart to enlarge

It shows that there are more Buy and Short Signals from shorter time-frame chart, that's the daily chart. (But, the back test data show that the Monthly Chart actually gain more profits.)
The following are just some charts around the globe with this indicator:-

China SSE Composite Daily Chart: Click to enlarge:

Singapore Straits Time Index Daily Chart: Click to enlarge

UK ETF Daily Chart: Click to enlarge

Germany ETF Daily Chart: Click the Chart to enlarge

Note: The back tested data has shown a surprising fact: That's this algorithm work better in longer time frame... That is trading with weekly charts are more profitable than daily charts.

The Algorithm that describes in his book, "How to Trade in Stock" is now decoded in the form of programming flow-charts, and it can be download here.:->
Programming the Jesse Livermore Market Key

Jesse Livermore once said: "It was never my thinking that made me money but my sitting tight."
How True! People would normally think too much either win or lose in their account with the emotion of greed or fear. Only those who work with system and stick with it can sit tight.

"...providing tools that can be utilized to evaluate information is more important than providing information; that tools whereby one can use his/her judgment is more important than providing values, and demanding responsibility is more important than providing laws and rules of conduct. The latter should be the default of only those who are unable or unwilling to take responsibility." - Clara Szalai (Philosopher, Writer)

The program source code in AFL can be download from:
2) Amibroker's AFL Library.(Need some little work to re-define the plotting state.)

----------------------------    Additinal note added on 10 May 2012  -------------------------------------
Like most other single stock indicator, Livermore Market Key was designed to analysis single stock.  In his book, Livermore put recommend to put two similar stocks(same sector) next to each other as to it would help to confirm the signals. 
As of today, the market is much more complex.  It is recommend to have a overall view on the market with the concept of -> Sector Rotation <- rather than just focus in one stock.

---------------------------- Additional note added on 19 Apr 2013  -------------------------------------

Just thought of an idea.

Instead of plotting the levels indicator, one can actually plot these level lines ONTO the price chart itself.  The advantage would be knowing in advance the exact stop level instead of waiting for the indicator to switch states.

Would get back to work on this soon.

---------------------------- Additional note added on 06 May 2013 -------------------------------------

As promised on the last update, the following linked shows the Livermore Secret Market Key's Levels plotted on the price chart itself.  Very much helpful in visualizing the market action taking place and how the Market Key works!

Livermore Secret Market Key on Price Chart

---------------------------- Additional note added on 29 Sep 2013 -------------------------------------

When the Livermore Market Key fires the signals, it is the time when the Dow Theory three movements are in the same direction... 


------------------  Additional Information  Added on 06 Jan 2015 -----------------------

Excerpt from the book - Jesse Livermore's Methods of Trading in Stocks - written by Richard D. Wyckoff

He arrives at his office ,which is on one of the upper floors of a big down town skyscraper. There is no name on the door. It consists of a reception room,private offices for some of his assistants. and his own private office,separated by swinging doors from his board.room. This is an oblong room with a long silicate quotation board on one side and a row of windows opposite. On the board are exhibited quotations for thirty or forty of the leading active stocks, and a few each of the active futures in cotton, wheat, corn and oats. The quotation board is not arranged according to the ordinary custom prevailing in brokerage houses. The changes in quotations are not posted by means of printed tickets containing merely the opening, high, low and last figures; instead , each stock has its own column running the full length of the board. in which the various changes in quotations are written with chalk, with the numerous sales strung along down below the abbreviations. He prefers this kind of board because it gives him a line on the swings of a stock, the extent of its rallies and reactions, as well as its relative activity. The volume of trading does not appear on the board; he gets this from the tape.

(Also in the the book - there is a concise chapter on Tape Reading)
Chapter 4. How Livermore Reads The Tape
                 How He Judges The Turning Points
                 How He Plays The Intermediate Swings

For those who are interested in Livermore methodology, you probably had read the book -   Reminiscences of a stock operator written by Edwin Lefevre. (PDF version is easily available by online search.)
Just the first few pages, it disclosed the method that brought him into the stock market as a child.  What is it???  --> TAPE READING!

In Short, the Jesse Livermore Secret Market Key is NOT COMPLETE without integration of the trading volume from Tape Reading.

Enjoy. :-)

Bless You
KH Tang


The Hardest Task in the World

Ralph Waldo Emerson said:
"What is the hardest task in the world? To Think."

How can that be? Why is that so? Or, isn't it true???

Let begin by looking up for the definitions of the word "Think" in the web dictionary":-
  1. judge or regard; look upon;
  2. expect, believe, or suppose;
  3. use or exercise the mind or one's power of reason in order to make inferences, decisions, or arrive at a solution or judgments;
  4. remember: recall knowledge from memory; have a recollection;
  5. imagine or visualize;
  6. focus one's attention on a certain state;
  7. intend: have in mind as a purpose;
  8. decide by pondering, reasoning, or reflecting;
  9. ponder; reflect on, or reason about;
  10. dispose the mind in a certain way;
  11. have or formulate in the mind;
  12. be capable of conscious thought;
  13. bring into a given condition by mental preoccupation;
  14. an instance of deliberate thinking;
On the surface, "Thinking" seems to be a task that we are doing all day long. And, if we were to look into it more detail... Many of the Thoughts that we are thinking are not ours at all, I mean that most of the Thoughts, by most people, are NOT originated by themselves, if any at all. In this information age, we are bombarded with information by the Media, and we process the information based on our beliefs; Just like a computer process the input data based on a pre-programmed algorithm to get the output. In computer term, there is a acronym, 'GIGO' -- 'Garbage In, Garbage Out'. Likewise, 'garbage information' would lead to 'garbage behavior' for those who expose themselves to the media.

As the saying goes, "As a man thinketh, So is he."
With the same token, "As the citizens thinketh, so the country."

Therefore, when the Major Medias are consolidated and controlled by less number of corporations, the public would have less opportunity to get different views/information on any matter or subject. The worse case would be: When some corporation control the media, it control the public thinking, -- or simply put --> control the mind of the public.

To sum up, distorted information would lead to distorted thinking, which would then lead to wrong decision and do the wrong things. For example, looking back on the "reasons" that called for wars in the history... Such as going after the "Mass Destructive Weapon" to protect "World Peace", etc...

One way to ensure this do not happen is to have every one to be able to think more independently. Yes, it may seem easier to say than done... As we can't always control the circumstances. But we can control our own thoughts. :-D

“In religion and politics, people’s beliefs and convictions are in almost

every case gotten at second-hand, and without examination,

from authorities who have not themselves examined

the questions at issue, but have taken them at

second-hand from other non-examiners,

whose opinions about them were

not worth a brass farthing.”

– Mark Twain

More... With explanation...

Collector Edition.... :-D